Oliver’s insights – The Fed looks like it’s going to hike – implications for investors & Australia
17 September
Key points –The Fed is likely to start raising interest rates to combat sticky inflation and affirm its credibility.
First Fed rate hikes in a tightening cycle don’t normally signal the end of the bull market in shares but are consistent...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The super cycle bear market in bonds and the return of “bond vigilantes”
10 September
Key pointsBond yields are being pushed higher by concerns about inflation, high public debt, rising corporate borrowing, rising Japanese bond yields and increasing economic uncertainty.
This is part of a super cycle rise in bond yields that...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The Australian home price downturn deepened in August, with more to go
3 September
Key pointsThe slump in national average home prices continued in August with prices down 0.9% according to Cotality, their fifth monthly fall. The fall in July was revised down to -1.2%.
Further falls are likely as we continue to expect another...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Why investors need to treat forecasts with caution
20 August
Key pointsThe increasing noise around investing – associated with a messier economic and geopolitical backdrop along with an explosion in information flow and the rise of social media – is arguably accentuating a desire for investment...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Another hawkish RBA hold at 4.35% – expect one more hike later this year
13 August
Key pointsThe RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.35% for the second meeting in a row. Some softer than expected readings for underlying inflation, jobs and home prices allowed it to remain in wait and see mode as it “assesses” the impact of...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Inflation, rate hikes and public spending – Q&A
12 February
Key pointsKeeping inflation low and around target is important in terms of maximising living standards in Australia.We are optimistic that much of the recent rise in inflation will prove temporary.But some may reflect the economy hitting...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – RBA starts the year off with a rate hike
5 February
Key pointsThe RBA hiked its cash rate by 0.25% to 3.85% as widely expected in response to inflation running above target.Its commentary was cautious and hawkish with inflation now expected to stay above target for longer even with assumptions for...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – From the age of the economist to the age of the populist – key insights from economics, why many are ignored & what it means for investors
29 January
Key pointsEconomics provides a range of insights including that: there is no free lunch; prices in free markets are usually best at allocating scarce resources; government policy comes with benefits and costs; productivity underpins living...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The investment Outlook for 2026 – expect a rough but, ultimately, ok ride
22 January
Key points2025 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth and profits and global central banks cutting rates. Balanced super funds returned around 9%. Volatility rose though mainly on the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2025 turned out pretty good, but what about 2026 – still at the bliss point?
18 December
Key pointsThe key themes for 2025 were: tariff turmoil; global resilience helped by AI enthusiasm; sticky inflation; lower rates; and lots of geopolitical noise. For the third year in a row, returns were strong, albeit they slowed.2026 is likely to...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2025 turned out pretty good, but what about 2026 – still at the bliss point?
11 December
Key pointsThe key themes for 2025 were: tariff turmoil; global resilience helped by AI enthusiasm; sticky inflation; lower rates; and lots of geopolitical noise. For the third year in a row, returns were strong, albeit they slowed.2026 is likely to...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Australian home prices up solidly – expect some slowing in 2026
4 December
Key pointsCotality data shows national average home prices rose strongly again in November, but with the pace of growth slowing slightly to 1%mom.Near record low vacancy rates is contributing to a pickup in annual rental growth to...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Housing affordability at a record low – here’s four key ways to fix it
27 November
Key pointsWith the latest surge in home prices relative to incomes housing affordability is at a new record low. This is adding to a slide in home ownership and rising inequality.The key to sustainably improving housing affordability is to better...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Share market wobbles – what are the negatives and positives?
20 November
Key pointsRich valuations, AI bubble worries and uncertainty about central bank rate cuts are the main negatives for shares at present and could see recent falls extend further.Against this though, global profit...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Investment cycles – what are they and why you need to be aware of them
23 October
Key pointsCyclical fluctuations are a key aspect of investment markets. Most are driven by economic developments but get magnified by swings in investor sentiment.Of particular importance are the long-term cycles which are often driven by waves of...[Read More]
