Oliver’s Insights – The risk of a US public debt crisis – and implications for shares
12 June
Key pointsUS tax cuts point to ongoing budget deficits around 7% of GDP, a rising trend in already very high public debt and a further rise in already record debt interest payments.While a full-blown US public debt crisis is unlikely, this...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA cuts again and becomes more dovish
22 May
Key pointsAs widely expected, the RBA cut by 0.25% taking its cash rate to 3.85%. This is the second rate cut in this easing cycle.The RBA remains “cautious about the outlook”, but its overall commentary appears more dovish leaving the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Trump’s policies & the equity risk premium – the good, the bad & the ugly
22 May
Key pointsHelped by President Trump’s backdown on tariffs, shares have
The good news is that the last month highlights that Trump is still sensitive to share market falls and worries of recession. The bad news is that the tariff mayhem could...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Labor returned to government in Australia – key challenges and risks
8 May
Key pointsThe return of Labor with an increased majority basically means more of the same in terms of key economic policies.
The key challenges for the Government are to boost productivity and hence living standards, improve housing supply and...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Why investors need to be aware of the psychology of investing
1 May
Key pointsInvestment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts & why they can react in extreme ways to events.
The key for...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Seven reasons Australia is likely to avoid recession from Trump’s shock
17 April
Key pointsPresident Trump’s trade war poses a threat to Australian economic growth particularly via the indirect impact of weaker global activity driving less demand for our exports and lower commodity prices.
Australia is likely to avoid a...[Read More]
Investment markets and key developments – Weekly market update 8/04/2025
10 April
Global share markets plunged over the last week taking them well below their mid-March lows in response to Trump’s higher than expected tariffs, with China’s retaliation on Friday adding to worries about a full-blown trade war, all of which...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The Trump Dump in shares – what does it mean for Australia & investors?
8 April
Key pointsShare markets have fallen further on US President Trump’s worse than expected tariff policies.
Further weakness is likely but at some point Trump is likely to pivot towards focussing more on his market friendly policies and the Fed...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The 2025-26 Federal Budget’s economic impact
27 March
AMP economists Dr Shane Oliver, Diana Mousina and My Bui explain what impact the 2025-26 Federal Budget could have on the Aussie economy and investment markets.
Key points
Many measures were pre-announced, but key new measures include tax cuts...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Share market falls – seven key things for investors to bear in mind
13 March
Key points:Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks as uncertainty around US President Trump’s policies have led to renewed concerns about the risk of recession at a time when share market valuations were stretched.It’s still too...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian home prices turning back up again
6 March
Key pointsCoreLogic data shows average home prices rose 0.3% in February, after a brief three-month downturn of just 0.4%.
The upswing came in anticipation of, and then confirmation of, an RBA rate cut which boosted buyer confidence.
Annual...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
27 February
Key pointsSo far shares have been relatively resilient, but uncertainties are mounting particularly around Trump’s policies.
We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but expect a rougher more constrained ride this year for shares, with a 15% plus...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The RBA starts cutting rates – implications for the economy and investors
20 February
Key pointsAs widely expected, the RBA cut its cash rate to 4.1% from 4.35% after 13 rate hikes reflecting “more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards” the 2-3% target.
However, the RBA noted that it is “cautious on...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Investment outlook Q&A – Tariff man & Aust exports, the RBA, $A & gold
13 February
Key pointsTrump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more.
Even if Australian exports are not exempted...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – More Trump tariffs (and deals) – implications for investors and Australia
6 February
Key pointsUS President Trump has announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China and is threatening more tariffs.
The one-month delay to tariffs with Canada & Mexico is a sign they may be averted, but the uncertainty with more tariffs likely means...[Read More]
