Economist
Oliver’s insights – Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared
21 November
Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Five ways to turn down the noise, stay focussed (and survive Trump)
14 November
Key points – A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful and short-term focussed. – Five ways to help manage the noise and stay...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Donald Trump elected President of the US (again). Implications for investors and Australia
13 November
Key points – The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes and trade wars and policy uncertainty. – His win was not the surprise it was in 2016, and markets...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Why value matters in investing – and what are valuations telling us now?
31 October
Key points – Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns. – Valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds have improved. For shares they suggest...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Nine bad habits of ineffective investors: common mistakes investors make
24 October
Key points – Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. – As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. – The easiest way to avoid many of...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights China’s big stimulus – will it work? And what does it mean for Australia?
17 October
Key points – A move towards more aggressive fiscal policy stimulus and property support measures should help drive a mild cyclical upswing in China’s economy. – However, it’s doubtful it will be enough to reverse longer term structural...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Harris versus Trump – implications for investors and Australia
10 October
Key points – The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade. – Australia would be vulnerable to a rapid...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Shares around record highs as inflation slides – but what are the risks?
3 October
Key points – Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility. – The expansion of the war around Israel and Iran...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Will house prices crash? And what’s needed to fix housing affordability
29 August
Key points – Predictions of an Australian house price crash create lots of interest but have been a dime a dozen over the last 20 yrs. – However, there is more to the surge in property prices than easy money with a supply shortfall being the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Why super and growth assets like shares really are long term investments
22 August
Key points – While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds and cash, they provide superior long-term returns. So, it makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. – The best approach...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on – where are they now?
15 August
Key points – Shares have hit a rough patch since recent highs with concerns about the growth outlook. – We remain upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation allows rate cuts and hopefully recession is avoided or is mild. But the risk of a...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Recession fears & share mkt falls – what it means for the RBA & investors?
8 August
Key points – The risk of recession is high. – The falls in shares and commodity prices reflect this. – Lower growth and recession would mean a high risk of the inflation rate undershooting the RBA’s inflation target. – The RBA should be...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The rise of populism and bigger government – what it means for investors
25 July
Key points – The continuing rise of populism globally – as evident in recent European elections and in the US with Trump and the Republican party – is signalling an ongoing shift away from economic rationalist policies in favour of greater...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian shares at new record highs – is it sustainable?
18 July
Key points – With Australian shares reaching a new record high we have revised up our slightly our expectations for the ASX 200 this year (from 7900 to 8100) reflecting prospects for lower interest rates globally and eventually in Australia...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The five reasons why the $A is likely to rise further – if recession is avoided
11 July
Key points – After a soft patch since 2021, there is good reason to expect the $A to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative;...[Read More]