Oliver’s insights – Share market falls – seven key things for investors to bear in mind
13 March
Key points:Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks as uncertainty around US President Trump’s policies have led to renewed concerns about the risk of recession at a time when share market valuations were stretched.It’s still too...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian home prices turning back up again
6 March
Key pointsCoreLogic data shows average home prices rose 0.3% in February, after a brief three-month downturn of just 0.4%.
The upswing came in anticipation of, and then confirmation of, an RBA rate cut which boosted buyer confidence.
Annual...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
27 February
Key pointsSo far shares have been relatively resilient, but uncertainties are mounting particularly around Trump’s policies.
We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but expect a rougher more constrained ride this year for shares, with a 15% plus...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The RBA starts cutting rates – implications for the economy and investors
20 February
Key pointsAs widely expected, the RBA cut its cash rate to 4.1% from 4.35% after 13 rate hikes reflecting “more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards” the 2-3% target.
However, the RBA noted that it is “cautious on...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Investment outlook Q&A – Tariff man & Aust exports, the RBA, $A & gold
13 February
Key pointsTrump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more.
Even if Australian exports are not exempted...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – More Trump tariffs (and deals) – implications for investors and Australia
6 February
Key pointsUS President Trump has announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China and is threatening more tariffs.
The one-month delay to tariffs with Canada & Mexico is a sign they may be averted, but the uncertainty with more tariffs likely means...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – What’s driven the fall in the $A? – Does it threaten inflation and RBA easing?
23 January
Key pointsThe $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices.
We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – More volatile and constrained – the macro investment outlook for 2025
16 January
Key points2024 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth & profits and global central banks cutting rates. Volatility was low and balanced growth super funds returned around 11%.
2025...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australia’s falling living standards – what’s driving it and how to fix it
19 December
Key points
– Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards.
– But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity growth from over 2% pa in...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Goldilocks stayed for 2024, but what’s in store for investors in 2025?
12 December
Key points
– The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared
21 November
Key points
– The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive.
– He also faces...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Five ways to turn down the noise, stay focussed (and survive Trump)
14 November
Key points
– A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful and short-term focussed.
– Five ways to help manage the noise and stay...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Donald Trump elected President of the US (again). Implications for investors and Australia
13 November
Key points
– The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes and trade wars and policy uncertainty.
– His win was not the surprise it was in 2016, and markets...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Why value matters in investing – and what are valuations telling us now?
31 October
Key points
– Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns.
– Valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds have improved. For shares they suggest...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Nine bad habits of ineffective investors: common mistakes investors make
24 October
Key points
– Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.
– As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head.
– The easiest way to avoid many of...[Read More]
